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UPDATE 1-Fiat sees '09 beating estimates, '10 improving


* Fiat CEO says 2009 will beat average of consensus

* Year results to be announced on Jan. 25

* CEO says 2010 to be better even without sales incentives

MILAN, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Fiat SpA's <FIA.MI> 2009 results
will beat the average of consensus figures from analysts, Chief
Executive Sergio Marchionne said on Wednesday, and he said this
year would be better even without any incentives for car
buyers.

"They will be above the average; they will be better,"
Marchionne told reporters at an awards presentation.

He said if there were no tax breaks from the government on
car sales in 2010, "we would be able to take that blow," and
this year's results would still be better than 2009's.

Fiat, which owns a 20 percent stake in U.S. car maker
Chrysler Group LLC, is set to publish results for the fourth
quarter and year on Jan. 25, but visibility for 2010 and 2011
remains limited ahead of a new industrial plan.

The consensus forecast for the Italian carmaker is for
group trading profit of 460 million euros for the fourth
quarter and just over Fiat's target of 1 billion euros for the
year.

Fiat polled analysts to arrive at the consensus on Jan. 7.
But some brokers had already suggested that Fiat could beat the
consensus based on Italian, Brazilian and European car sales
data released since Jan. 4. [ID:nLDE6030W0] [ID:nSPG002671]

"Sales were better than the consensus forecast, so we're
expecting a net industrial debt under 5 billion euros ($7.10
billion), because working capital grew less," said an analyst.
Two further analysts from leading Italian institutions agreed.

According to data from the consensus compiled by Fiat, auto
trading profit should be 200 million euros and group net
industrial debt should stand at 5.015 billion euros.

For the year as a whole, the group is expected to post a
trading profit of 1.030 billion euros and a net loss of 470
million euros.

In May last year the group set out objectives targeting a
group net profit above 100 million euros for 2009, a trading
profit above 1 billion euros and net industrial debt at 5
billion euros.

Fiat won't meet its net profit target because of
exceptional circumstances, and in particular depreciation,
which will weigh on its bottom line.

"They have talked about noncash depreciation on some
platforms, because of program changes for new models," said
another analyst.

At the release of its third quarter results in October,
Fiat said that as a result of aligning some business with
Chrysler's, it could review past investments, "necessitating
the write-off, as unusual items, of these legacy investments."
[ID:nLL248922]

The uncertainties weighing on 2010 performance are linked
to the possible renewal of scrapping incentive programs in
Europe, and to the limited visibility of the heavy goods
vehicle and industrial machine markets.

The Italian government has said its incentives, which ended
on Dec. 31, will be extended in some form this year but has yet
to give details.

Analysts are looking for clues on possible synergies and
savings from Fiat's stake in U.S. automaker Chrysler, and on
new products.

Below are consensus forecasts compiled by Fiat. They show
the median of the estimates of 25 analysts who responded to a
survey sent out by the group's investor relations department on
Jan. 7.

Q4 09 2009 2010 2011

Group Trading Profit 460 1,030 1,490 2,190

Auto Trading profit 200 480 400 630

CNH Trading Profit 110 350 515 690

Iveco Trading Profit 35 60 180 360

Pretax profit 30 (210) 790 1,560

Net profit 65 (470) 535 1,060

Net industrial debt 5,015 5,015 4,700 4,100
($1=.7040 Euro)
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Additional Reporting by Nigel
Tutt; Writing by Helen Massy-Beresford; Editing by Gerald E.
McCormick)